Ecological models are a medium, just like books. Drawing upon an analysis offered by media scholar Katherine Buse, we might treat ecological models as a form of media, much like the book medium or the video game medium. 

Ecological models draw upon data to make projections about how future events could impact the ecology. In storytelling, when we tell a true story, we call it "nonfiction." Because ecological models draw upon data to aspire to tell true stories about possible futures, we might call them works of "interactive nonfiction science fiction."

The future hasn't been written yet—which is why we need multiple scenarios. In stochastic modeling, we create multiple scenarios for what could happen in the future. We do this for many reasons, including to highlight the reality that humans still have quite a bit of agency regarding what happens next. Having multiple scenarios also allows us to get a better sense of the range of possibilities. This is why BasedMIP includes multiple example scenarios, and also allows users to create their own scenarios.

Dealing with uncertainly and margins of error. All forms of modeling have a level of uncertainly. For example, long-range weather models can't precisely predict when and where a storm is going to form further out than a couple of weeks, but they can offer us a sense of the likelihood of a storm forming in a given season in a region, under a given set of conditions. Modeling isn't a crystal ball. Yet, modeling can help us track and make sense of patterns. 

Some patterns can be tracked, and this helps us gain a sense of what will likely happen if those patterns continue. For example, sometimes we see that a species is disappearing at a steady rate, or a specific gas is increasing in the atmosphere at a pace we can measure. Likewise, we can also track things like how much energy is being used and how much of the grid has transitioned to renewable energy. We can even track how different social practices can create conditions in which certain types of polluting behavior are statically more or less likely to occur. By tracking patterns like these, researchers can gain a sense of what different versions of the future could look like, depending on what we, as a species, do next.

Towards useable futures. The process of developing BasedMIP is one of finding common ground between disciplines while building data-driven tools that can be used to guide storytelling that explores different visions of what the future could be. Once BasedMIP is complete, users will be able to draw upon it to develop scenarios of their own and use a hands-on approach to explore what different futures might look like.